论文标题
通过比较统计和机器学习算法来了解公平环境中的过境乘客
Understanding transit ridership in an equity context through a comparison of statistical and machine learning algorithms
论文作者
论文摘要
基于个人特征和建筑环境属性建立准确的旅行行为模型对于决策和运输计划至关重要。大数据和机器学习(ML)算法对更好的旅行行为分析的最新实验主要忽略了社会上弱势群体的群体。因此,在这项研究中,我们使用统计和ML模型探讨了低收入个人在加拿大大多伦多和汉密尔顿地区交通投资的旅行行为反应。我们首先研究模型选择如何影响低收入群体对过境使用的预测。此步骤包括比较传统和ML算法的预测性能,然后通过对比预测的活动以及在改善可访问性后易受伤害家庭产生的过境旅行的空间分布来评估运输投资政策。我们还经验研究了每种算法提出的过境投资,并将其与布兰普顿市未来的运输计划进行了比较。毫不奇怪,ML算法的表现优于古典模型,但由于问题的关注,仍然对使用它们仍然存在疑问。因此,我们采用了最新的本地和全球模型不合SNOSTIC解释工具来解释该模型如何进行预测。我们的发现揭示了ML算法对增强低收入层的旅行行为预测的巨大潜力,而无需牺牲可解释性。
Building an accurate model of travel behaviour based on individuals' characteristics and built environment attributes is of importance for policy-making and transportation planning. Recent experiments with big data and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms toward a better travel behaviour analysis have mainly overlooked socially disadvantaged groups. Accordingly, in this study, we explore the travel behaviour responses of low-income individuals to transit investments in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Canada, using statistical and ML models. We first investigate how the model choice affects the prediction of transit use by the low-income group. This step includes comparing the predictive performance of traditional and ML algorithms and then evaluating a transit investment policy by contrasting the predicted activities and the spatial distribution of transit trips generated by vulnerable households after improving accessibility. We also empirically investigate the proposed transit investment by each algorithm and compare it with the city of Brampton's future transportation plan. While, unsurprisingly, the ML algorithms outperform classical models, there are still doubts about using them due to interpretability concerns. Hence, we adopt recent local and global model-agnostic interpretation tools to interpret how the model arrives at its predictions. Our findings reveal the great potential of ML algorithms for enhanced travel behaviour predictions for low-income strata without considerably sacrificing interpretability.