论文标题
从最后800公里的千禧年气候波动中提取因果关系
Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr
论文作者
论文摘要
从古气候记录的分析中检测原因效应关系是解散气候系统中主要机制的关键步骤。在这里，我们表明，基于转移熵分析的广义波动散动关系的方法，可以在最后800 kyr的冰川循环期间基于反葡萄酒冰核记录的最后800 kyr的冰川周期中的温度，二氧化碳浓度和天文强迫识别因果关系。在考虑整个时间尺度时，分析的结果表明温度驱动二氧化碳浓度，或者都是由常见的天文强迫驱动的。但是，仅考虑千禧一代的波动，结果揭示了存在更复杂的因果关系，这表明二氧化碳变化有助于在此类时间尺度上驱动温度的变化。结果还证明了温度和二氧化碳浓度之间千禧一代因果关系强度的时间变化缓慢。
The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO2 concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO2 concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO2 variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO2 concentration.
