论文标题
SARS-COV-2 Omicron的地方性振荡 - SIRS模型分析
Endemic Oscillations for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron -- A SIRS model analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
众所周知，具有持续疫苗接种和免疫力降低率的SIRS模型显示出从无疾病到地方性平衡的过渡，因为基本繁殖数量$ r_0 $升高到阈值以上。结果表明，该模型映射到最初于1973年发表的Hethcote的经典流行模型。以这种方式，人们为整个类型的模型获得了统一的公式。特别是，如果疫苗接种率小于恢复率，对于某些上限和下限$ r_ \ pm $，$ r_- <r_0 <r _+$，则通过阻尼感染波螺旋式轨迹进入地方性平衡。 SARS-COV-2 OMICRON变体的最新数据表明，根据这一简化模型，连续疫苗接种计划将无法逃脱振荡的流行阶段。但是，鉴于该模型预测的强阻尼因子，实际上，这些振荡肯定会被时间依赖性的接触行为否决。
The SIRS model with constant vaccination and immunity waning rates is well known to show a transition from a disease-free to an endemic equilibrium as the basic reproduction number $r_0$ is raised above threshold. It is shown that this model maps to Hethcote's classic endemic model originally published in 1973. In this way one obtains unifying formulas for a whole class of models showing endemic bifurcation. In particular, if the vaccination rate is smaller than the recovery rate and $r_- < r_0 < r_+$ for certain upper and lower bounds $r_\pm$, then trajectories spiral into the endemic equilibrium via damped infection waves. Latest data of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant suggest that according to this simplified model continuous vaccination programs will not be capable to escape the oscillating endemic phase. However, in view of the strong damping factors predicted by the model, in reality these oscillations will certainly be overruled by time-dependent contact behaviors.
