论文标题
世界贸易网络中的Dollar-Yuan战斗
Dollar-Yuan Battle in the World Trade Network
论文作者
论文摘要
从1944年的布雷顿伍兹协议（Bretton Woods Chails）到今天，美元一直是世界贸易中的主要货币。但是，中国经济的兴起最近导致了中国人民币的贸易交易的出现。在这里，我们在数学上分析了国际贸易流量的结构如何偏爱一个国家以美元或中国人民币进行贸易。贸易货币偏好的计算是基于从2010 - 2020年联合国跨贸易数据构建的世界贸易网络。一个国家偏爱以美元或中国人民币进行贸易，取决于两个乘法因素：该国与其直接贸易伙伴交换的贸易量的相对权重，以及其在全球国际贸易中的贸易伙伴的相对权重。基于世界贸易网络上的旋转互动的进行分析表明，从2010年到现在，发生了过渡，而世界各国现在将偏爱中国人民币的贸易，如果只考虑世界贸易网络结构。
From the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 till the present day, the US dollar has been the dominant currency in the world trade. However, the rise of the Chinese economy led recently to the emergence of trade transactions in Chinese yuan. Here, we analyze mathematically how the structure of the international trade flows would favor a country to trade whether in US dollar or in Chinese yuan. The computation of the trade currency preference is based on the world trade network built from the 2010-2020 UN Comtrade data. The preference of a country to trade in US dollar or Chinese yuan is determined by two multiplicative factors: the relative weight of trade volume exchanged by the country with its direct trade partners, and the relative weight of its trade partners in the global international trade. The performed analysis, based on Ising spin interactions on the world trade network, shows that, from 2010 to present, a transition took place, and the majority of the world countries would have now a preference to trade in Chinese yuan if one only consider the world trade network structure.
