论文标题
比较不确定性量化与深度学习时间序列回归的比较
Comparison of Uncertainty Quantification with Deep Learning in Time Series Regression
论文作者
论文摘要
越来越高风险的决定是使用神经网络做出的,以做出预测。具体而言,气象学家和对冲基金将这些技术应用于时间序列数据。在预测方面,机器学习模型(例如缺乏表现力,域移动的脆弱性和过度自信)存在某些局限性,可以使用不确定性估计来解决。关于不确定性应````行为'''有一系列期望。预测不确定性。
Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain limitations for machine learning models (such as lack of expressiveness, vulnerability of domain shifts and overconfidence) which can be solved using uncertainty estimation. There is a set of expectations regarding how uncertainty should ``behave". For instance, a wider prediction horizon should lead to more uncertainty or the model's confidence should be proportional to its accuracy. In this paper, different uncertainty estimation methods are compared to forecast meteorological time series data and evaluate these expectations. The results show how each uncertainty estimation method performs on the forecasting task, which partially evaluates the robustness of predicted uncertainty.