论文标题
了解神经网络中贝叶斯推断的近似
Understanding Approximation for Bayesian Inference in Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
贝叶斯的推论具有理论吸引力,作为有关信仰推理的原则框架。但是,认为它是唯一的“理性”推理的贝叶斯推论的动机在实践中不适用。它们创建了一个二进制拆分,其中所有近似推断都同样“非理性”。取而代之的是,我们应该问自己如何定义一系列较不理性的推理,这解释了为什么我们可能更喜欢一个贝叶斯近似而不是另一个贝叶斯。我探讨了贝叶斯神经网络中的近似推断,并考虑了概率模型,近似分布,优化算法和数据集之间的意外相互作用。这些相互作用的复杂性突出了任何策略在评估贝叶斯近似值的困难,这些贝叶斯近似完全关注该方法,而不是在特定数据集和决策问题的背景之外。对于给定的应用,近似后验的预期效用可以测量推理质量。为了评估模型合并贝叶斯框架不同部分的能力,我们可以确定贝叶斯推理的理想特征行为,并选择大量利用这些行为的决策问题。在这里,我们使用持续学习(测试依次更新的能力)和主动学习(测试表示信任的能力)。但是,现有的持续和积极的学习设置构成了与后质量无关的挑战,这些挑战可能会扭曲评估贝叶斯近似值的能力。可以消除或减少这些无关的挑战,从而更好地评估近似推理方法。
Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They create a binary split in which all approximate inference is equally 'irrational'. Instead, we should ask ourselves how to define a spectrum of more- and less-rational reasoning that explains why we might prefer one Bayesian approximation to another. I explore approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks and consider the unintended interactions between the probabilistic model, approximating distribution, optimization algorithm, and dataset. The complexity of these interactions highlights the difficulty of any strategy for evaluating Bayesian approximations which focuses entirely on the method, outside the context of specific datasets and decision-problems. For given applications, the expected utility of the approximate posterior can measure inference quality. To assess a model's ability to incorporate different parts of the Bayesian framework we can identify desirable characteristic behaviours of Bayesian reasoning and pick decision-problems that make heavy use of those behaviours. Here, we use continual learning (testing the ability to update sequentially) and active learning (testing the ability to represent credence). But existing continual and active learning set-ups pose challenges that have nothing to do with posterior quality which can distort their ability to evaluate Bayesian approximations. These unrelated challenges can be removed or reduced, allowing better evaluation of approximate inference methods.