论文标题
危机不会导致较低的短期增长
Crises Do Not Cause Lower Short-Term Growth
论文作者
论文摘要
人们普遍认为，在两年衰退期间，金融危机会导致“一个国家的增长”，这可以通过其危机后的GDP增长来反映。但是，通过将因果模型与标准预测模型进行对比，本文认为这种信念是非因果的。为了做出因果推断，我们设计了一个两阶段交错的差异模型，以估计平均治疗效果。将残留物解释为每次危机对治疗效应的贡献，我们惊讶地得出结论，横断面危机通常仅限于向决策者提供相关的因果信息。
It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard prediction model, this paper argues that such a belief is non-causal. To make causal inferences, we design a two-stage staggered difference-in-differences model to estimate the average treatment effects. Interpreting the residuals as the contribution of each crisis to the treatment effects, we astonishingly conclude that cross-sectional crises are often limited to providing relevant causal information to policymakers.
