论文标题
基因表达特征的预后相关性
Prognostic relevance of gene-expression signatures
论文作者
论文摘要
癌症的预后可以被认为是估计多个变量未来结果的风险。在预后签名中，这些变量代表基因的表达式，这些变量总结为计算风险评分。但是，在生活系统中，这是一种自然现象，即整体不仅仅是其各个部分的总和。我们假设签名的预后能力从根本上受到限制，而没有纳入新兴效果。一组前所未有的大小（约10,000个特征）的收敛证据暗示着最大的预后能力。我们表明，签名可以在不超过80％的时间内正确区分患者的预后。使用简单的仿真，我们表明，在此值仍缺少超过50％的潜在可用信息。
Cancer prognosis can be regarded as estimating the risk of future outcomes from multiple variables. In prognostic signatures, these variables represent expressions of genes that are summed up to calculate a risk score. However, it is a natural phenomenon in living systems that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. We hypothesize that the prognostic power of signatures is fundamentally limited without incorporating emergent effects. Convergent evidence from a set of unprecedented size (ca. 10,000 signatures) implicates a maximum prognostic power. We show that a signature can correctly discriminate patients' prognoses in no more than 80% of the time. Using a simple simulation, we show that more than 50% of the potentially available information is still missing at this value.
