论文标题
估计基于生物学启发的代理模型的长期行为
Estimating the Long-term Behavior of Biologically Inspired Agent-based Models
论文作者
论文摘要
基于代理的模型(ABM)是一个计算模型,其中自主代理之间的局部相互作用彼此且与其环境相互作用,从而在给定域内产生了全局属性。随着这些模型的细节和复杂性的增长,运行多个模拟以执行灵敏度分析并评估长期模型行为的计算费用也是如此。在这里,我们概括了一个数学上正式化ABM的框架,以明确纳入生物系统中常见的特征:代理的外观(出生),去除药物(死亡)以及局部依赖的状态变化。然后,我们使用更广泛的框架扩展了一种无需模拟而估算长期行为的方法,特别是随着时间的推移,人口密度的变化。该方法是概率的,并且依赖于通过“时间步骤”作为Markov过程来处理ABM的离散,增量更新,以在每个时间步骤中为代理生成期望值。作为案例研究,我们将扩展应用于基于生命游戏的简单ABM和脊椎动物中肋骨发育的ABM。
An agent-based model (ABM) is a computational model in which the local interactions of autonomous agents with each other and with their environment give rise to global properties within a given domain. As the detail and complexity of these models has grown, so too has the computational expense of running several simulations to perform sensitivity analysis and evaluate long-term model behavior. Here, we generalize a framework for mathematically formalizing ABMs to explicitly incorporate features commonly found in biological systems: appearance of agents (birth), removal of agents (death), and locally dependent state changes. We then use our broader framework to extend an approach for estimating long-term behavior without simulations, specifically changes in population densities over time. The approach is probabilistic and relies on treating the discrete, incremental update of an ABM via "time steps" as a Markov process to generate expected values for agents at each time step. As case studies, we apply our extensions to both a simple ABM based on the Game of Life and a published ABM of rib development in vertebrates.