论文标题
种群动力学方法，用于在低地球轨道中空间碎片的分布
A Population Dynamics Approach to the Distribution of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit
论文作者
论文摘要
地球轨道中碎屑的存在对外太空中的人类活动带来了重大风险。由于地面发射，太空船的外部损失以及物体之间的不可控制的碰撞，这种碎片人口继续增长。因此，在计算可行的连续体模型中，碎片群的生长及其空间分布至关重要。在这里，我们提出了一个扩散碰撞模型，用于低地球轨道（LEO）中碎片密度的演变及其对地面发出策略的依赖性。我们对此模型进行参数，并根据来自公开可用的对象目录的数据进行测试，以检查时间尺度的不受控制的增长。最后，我们考虑明智的发射政策和清理策略，以及它们如何降低活跃卫星或太空船碰撞的未来风险。
The presence of debris in Earth's orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space. This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches, loss of external parts from space ships, and uncontrollable collisions between objects. A computationally feasible continuum model for the growth of the debris population and its spatial distribution is therefore critical. Here we propose a diffusion-collision model for the evolution of debris density in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and its dependence on ground-launch policy. We parametrize this model and test it against data from publicly available object catalogs to examine timescales for uncontrolled growth. Finally, we consider sensible launch policies and cleanup strategies and how they reduce the future risk of collisions with active satellites or space ships.
