论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Reverse Survival Model (RSM): A Pipeline for Explaining Predictions of Deep Survival Models

论文作者

Rezaei, Mohammad R., Fard, Reza Saadati, Pourjafari, Ebrahim, Ziaei, Navid, Sameizadeh, Amir, Shafiee, Mohammad, Alavinia, Mohammad, Abolghasemian, Mansour, Sajadi, Nick

论文摘要

医疗保健中生存分析的目的是估计事件发生的可能性,例如患者在重症监护病房(ICU)中的死亡。在生存分析应用中,与其他知名模型相比,深层神经网络(DNNS)的最新发展表明,这些模型的优势与其他知名模型相比。确保在医疗保健中部署的深层生存模型的可靠性和解释性是必要的。由于DNN模型通常像黑匣子一样行为,因此临床医生可能不容易信任他们的预测,尤其是当预测与医生的意见相反时。一个深厚的生存模型来解释并证明其决策过程可能会获得临床医生的信任。在这项研究中,我们提出了反向生存模型(RSM)框架,该框架为生存模型的决策过程提供了详细的见解。对于每个感兴趣的患者,RSM可以从数据集中提取相似的患者,并根据深层生存模型为其预测所依赖的最相关的特征对它们进行排名。

The aim of survival analysis in healthcare is to estimate the probability of occurrence of an event, such as a patient's death in an intensive care unit (ICU). Recent developments in deep neural networks (DNNs) for survival analysis show the superiority of these models in comparison with other well-known models in survival analysis applications. Ensuring the reliability and explainability of deep survival models deployed in healthcare is a necessity. Since DNN models often behave like a black box, their predictions might not be easily trusted by clinicians, especially when predictions are contrary to a physician's opinion. A deep survival model that explains and justifies its decision-making process could potentially gain the trust of clinicians. In this research, we propose the reverse survival model (RSM) framework that provides detailed insights into the decision-making process of survival models. For each patient of interest, RSM can extract similar patients from a dataset and rank them based on the most relevant features that deep survival models rely on for their predictions.

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