论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Online Adaptive Policy Selection in Time-Varying Systems: No-Regret via Contractive Perturbations
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We study online adaptive policy selection in systems with time-varying costs and dynamics. We develop the Gradient-based Adaptive Policy Selection (GAPS) algorithm together with a general analytical framework for online policy selection via online optimization. Under our proposed notion of contractive policy classes, we show that GAPS approximates the behavior of an ideal online gradient descent algorithm on the policy parameters while requiring less information and computation. When convexity holds, our algorithm is the first to achieve optimal policy regret. When convexity does not hold, we provide the first local regret bound for online policy selection. Our numerical experiments show that GAPS can adapt to changing environments more quickly than existing benchmarks.
