论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
On the number of genealogical ancestors tracing to the source groups of an admixed population
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
In genetically admixed populations, admixed individuals possess ancestry from multiple source groups. Studies of human genetic admixture frequently estimate ancestry components corresponding to fractions of individual genomes that trace to specific ancestral populations. However, the same numerical ancestry fraction can represent a wide array of admixture scenarios. Using a mechanistic model of admixture, we characterize admixture genealogically: how many distinct ancestors from the source populations does the admixture represent? We consider African Americans, for whom continent-level estimates produce a 75-85% value for African ancestry on average and 15-25% for European ancestry. Genetic studies together with key features of African-American demographic history suggest ranges for model parameters. Using the model, we infer that if genealogical lineages of a random African American born during 1960-1965 are traced back until they reach members of source populations, the expected number of genealogical lines terminating with African individuals is 314, and the expected number terminating in Europeans is 51. Across discrete generations, the peak number of African genealogical ancestors occurs for birth cohorts from the early 1700s. The probability exceeds 50% that at least one European ancestor was born more recently than 1835. Our genealogical perspective can contribute to further understanding the admixture processes that underlie admixed populations. For African Americans, the results provide insight both on how many of the ancestors of a typical African American might have been forcibly displaced in the Transatlantic Slave Trade and on how many separate European admixture events might exist in a typical African-American genealogy.