论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Innovation with and without patents
论文作者
论文摘要
一个长期的讨论是可以在多大程度上使用专利来监视创新活动的趋势。这项研究量化了专利系统中包含的实际创新信息的数量和质量，该信息基于4,460个瑞典创新（1970-2015），这些创新与国际专利相匹配。结果表明，大多数创新均未获得专利，而在所有创新的创新中，只有43.9％的创新，只能通过专利质量数据来识别一部分。表现最佳的模型确定了有关创新的所有信息的17％，相当于至少83％的信息损失。计量经济学测试还表明，在此期间响应加强专利法的创新部分平均为8％。因此，专利系统和创新系统之间的重叠比经常假设的更少。这强调了需要与专利一起开发多功能方法以诱导和监控创新的各个方面的需求。
A long-standing discussion is to what extent patents can be used to monitor trends in innovation activity. This study quantifies the amount and quality of information about actual innovation contained in the patent system, based on 4,460 Swedish innovations (1970-2015) that have been matched to international patents. The results show that most innovations were not patented and that among those that were, 43.9% of all innovations, only a fraction can be identified with patent quality data. The best-performing models identify 17% of all information about innovations, equivalent to an information loss of at least 83%. Econometric tests also show that the fraction of innovations responding to strengthened patent laws during the period were on average 8% percent. The overlap between the patent and innovation systems is hence more modest than often assumed. This accentuates the need to, alongside patents, develop versatile approaches in order to induce and monitor various aspects of innovation.
