论文标题
通过De Finetti定理的马尔可夫链将保形预测扩展到具有确切有效性的隐藏马尔可夫模型
Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains
论文作者
论文摘要
共形预测是一种广泛使用的方法,用于量化分类器在交换性的假设下的不确定性(例如,IID数据)。我们将共构预测推广到隐藏的马尔可夫模型(HMM)框架,在该框架中,交换性的假设无效。提出的方法的关键思想是通过利用DiaConis和Freedman(1980)发现的Markov链来将非交换Markovian数据从HMM划分为可交换的块。可交换块的排列被视为来自HMM观察到的马尔可夫数据的随机化。事实证明,所提出的方法保留了可交换和马尔可夫环境中经典的共形预测框架提供的所有理论保证。特别是,虽然马尔可夫样本引入的缺乏交换性构成了对经典保串预测的关键假设的侵犯,但提出的方法将其视为可以利用以进一步提高性能的优势。提供了补充理论结论的详细数值和经验结果,以说明该方法的实际可行性。
Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.