论文标题
医疗保健连环杀手还是巧合？调查可疑医疗不当行为的统计问题
Healthcare serial killer or coincidence? Statistical issues in investigation of suspected medical misconduct
论文作者
论文摘要
有时要求司法系统评估涉嫌非法杀害患者的卫生保健专业人员的案件。这些情况很难评估，因为它们至少涉及两个级别的不确定性。通常，在谋杀案中，很明显发生了凶杀案，调查人员必须解决对谁负责的不确定性。在我们这里检查的情况下，关于是否发生了凶杀案也存在不确定性。调查人员还需要考虑促使调查的死亡是否可能出于凶杀罪以外的其他原因发生，除了考虑是否确实是凶杀案的原因之外，受到怀疑的人是造成的。在根据皇家统计学会的主持下准备的本报告中，我们为调查和评估此类案件提供了建议和指导。对这些案件对法律制度构成的统计挑战的担忧引起了我们的工作。
Justice systems are sometimes called upon to evaluate cases in which health-care professionals are suspected of killing their patients illegally. These cases are difficult to evaluate because they involve at least two levels of uncertainty. Commonly in a murder case it is clear that a homicide has occurred, and investigators must resolve uncertainty about who is responsible. In the cases we examine here there is also uncertainty about whether homicide has occurred. Investigators need to consider whether the deaths that prompted the investigation could plausibly have occurred for reasons other than homicide, in addition to considering whether, if homicide was indeed the cause, the person under suspicion is responsible. In this report, prepared under the auspices of the Royal Statistical Society, we provide advice and guidance on the investigation and evaluation of such cases. Our work was prompted by concerns about the statistical challenges such cases pose for the legal system.
