论文标题
太阳能时间序列预测利用小波系数
Solar Power Time Series Forecasting Utilising Wavelet Coefficients
论文作者
论文摘要
光伏(PV)功率输出的准确预测对于电网稳定性和功率调度功能至关重要。但是,由于原因不同,光伏(PV)发电量高度挥发性和不稳定。小波变换(WT)已在时间序列应用中使用,例如光伏(PV)功率预测,以对随机波动率进行建模并减少预测误差。然而,现有的小波变换(WT)方法在时间复杂性方面有一个限制。它需要重建分解的组件并分别进行建模,因此需要更多时间进行重建,模型配置和训练。这项研究的目的是通过提出一种使用单个简化模型的新方法来提高应用小波变换(WT)的效率。鉴于时间序列及其小波变换(WT)系数,它以系数为特征和原始时间序列作为标签训练一个模型。这消除了组件重建和培训众多模型的需求。这项工作通过提出和全面评估采用WT的新方法来促进日期汇总的太阳能光伏(PV)功率时间序列预测问题。使用来自两个现实世界数据集的17个月聚合太阳能光伏(PV)功率数据评估了所提出的方法。评估包括使用各种预测模型,包括线性回归,随机森林,支持矢量回归和卷积神经网络。结果表明,使用基于系数的策略可以提供与使用基于组件的方法获得的预测,同时需要更少的模型和更少的计算时间。
Accurate and reliable prediction of Photovoltaic (PV) power output is critical to electricity grid stability and power dispatching capabilities. However, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is highly volatile and unstable due to different reasons. The Wavelet Transform (WT) has been utilised in time series applications, such as Photovoltaic (PV) power prediction, to model the stochastic volatility and reduce prediction errors. Yet the existing Wavelet Transform (WT) approach has a limitation in terms of time complexity. It requires reconstructing the decomposed components and modelling them separately and thus needs more time for reconstruction, model configuration and training. The aim of this study is to improve the efficiency of applying Wavelet Transform (WT) by proposing a new method that uses a single simplified model. Given a time series and its Wavelet Transform (WT) coefficients, it trains one model with the coefficients as features and the original time series as labels. This eliminates the need for component reconstruction and training numerous models. This work contributes to the day-ahead aggregated solar Photovoltaic (PV) power time series prediction problem by proposing and comprehensively evaluating a new approach of employing WT. The proposed approach is evaluated using 17 months of aggregated solar Photovoltaic (PV) power data from two real-world datasets. The evaluation includes the use of a variety of prediction models, including Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, and Convolutional Neural Networks. The results indicate that using a coefficients-based strategy can give predictions that are comparable to those obtained using the components-based approach while requiring fewer models and less computational time.