论文标题

公平入院风险预测,比例多核

Fair admission risk prediction with proportional multicalibration

论文作者

La Cava, William, Lett, Elle, Wan, Guangya

论文摘要

在风险预测环境中,公平校准是一个广泛理想的公平标准。测量和实现公平校准的一种方法是进行多核。多核电限制了灵活定义的亚群中的校准误差,同时保持整体校准。但是,基本速率较低的组比基本速率较高的组较低的组之间的校准误差更高。结果,决策者有可能学会信任或不信任特定组的模型预测。为了减轻这一点,我们提出了\ emph {比例多核},该标准限制了组之间和预测箱之间校准误差的百分比。我们证明,满足比例的多核电界限A模型的数字以及其\ emph {dixial校准},这是一个公平的标准,可以直接测量模型的近似值。因此,按比例校准的模型限制了决策者区分不同患者群体模型性能的能力,这可能会使模型在实践中更值得信赖。我们为后处理风险预测模型提供了有效的算法,以进行比例的多核电,并通过经验评估。我们进行仿真研究,并研究PMC-POSTPROCESSSPOROCESS在急诊科患者入院预测中的现实应用。我们观察到,比例的数字启动是控制模型在分类性能方面几乎没有成本的模型同时衡量校准公平性的有希望的标准。

Fair calibration is a widely desirable fairness criteria in risk prediction contexts. One way to measure and achieve fair calibration is with multicalibration. Multicalibration constrains calibration error among flexibly-defined subpopulations while maintaining overall calibration. However, multicalibrated models can exhibit a higher percent calibration error among groups with lower base rates than groups with higher base rates. As a result, it is possible for a decision-maker to learn to trust or distrust model predictions for specific groups. To alleviate this, we propose \emph{proportional multicalibration}, a criteria that constrains the percent calibration error among groups and within prediction bins. We prove that satisfying proportional multicalibration bounds a model's multicalibration as well its \emph{differential calibration}, a fairness criteria that directly measures how closely a model approximates sufficiency. Therefore, proportionally calibrated models limit the ability of decision makers to distinguish between model performance on different patient groups, which may make the models more trustworthy in practice. We provide an efficient algorithm for post-processing risk prediction models for proportional multicalibration and evaluate it empirically. We conduct simulation studies and investigate a real-world application of PMC-postprocessing to prediction of emergency department patient admissions. We observe that proportional multicalibration is a promising criteria for controlling simultaneous measures of calibration fairness of a model over intersectional groups with virtually no cost in terms of classification performance.

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