论文标题
基于检索的时间序列预测
Retrieval Based Time Series Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列数据出现在各种应用程序中,例如智能运输和环境监控。时间序列分析的基本问题之一是时间序列预测。尽管最近的深度时间序列预测方法取得了成功,但它们仍需要对历史值进行足够的观察才能进行准确的预测。换句话说,输出长度(或预测范围)与输入和输出长度之和的比率应足够低(例如,0.3)。随着比率的增加(例如,到0.8),预测准确性的不确定性显着增加。在本文中,我们从理论和经验上都表明,通过将相关时间序列作为参考的参考序列检索可以有效地降低不确定性。在理论分析中,我们首先量化不确定性,并显示其与均方误差(MSE)的连接。然后,我们证明,带有参考的模型比没有参考的模型更容易学习,因为检索到的参考可能会降低不确定性。为了凭经验证明基于检索的时间序列预测模型的有效性,我们引入了一种简单而有效的两阶段方法,称为“延迟”,该方法由关系检索和内容合成组成。我们还表明,可以很容易地适应时空时间序列和时间序列插补设置。最后,我们评估了现实世界数据集的延迟,以证明其有效性。
Time series data appears in a variety of applications such as smart transportation and environmental monitoring. One of the fundamental problems for time series analysis is time series forecasting. Despite the success of recent deep time series forecasting methods, they require sufficient observation of historical values to make accurate forecasting. In other words, the ratio of the output length (or forecasting horizon) to the sum of the input and output lengths should be low enough (e.g., 0.3). As the ratio increases (e.g., to 0.8), the uncertainty for the forecasting accuracy increases significantly. In this paper, we show both theoretically and empirically that the uncertainty could be effectively reduced by retrieving relevant time series as references. In the theoretical analysis, we first quantify the uncertainty and show its connections to the Mean Squared Error (MSE). Then we prove that models with references are easier to learn than models without references since the retrieved references could reduce the uncertainty. To empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the retrieval based time series forecasting models, we introduce a simple yet effective two-stage method, called ReTime consisting of a relational retrieval and a content synthesis. We also show that ReTime can be easily adapted to the spatial-temporal time series and time series imputation settings. Finally, we evaluate ReTime on real-world datasets to demonstrate its effectiveness.