论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

A light in the dark: searching for electromagnetic counterparts to black hole-black hole mergers in LIGO/Virgo O3 with the Zwicky Transient Facility

论文作者

Graham, Matthew J., McKernan, Barry, Ford, K. E. Saavik, Stern, Daniel, Djorgovski, S. G., Coughlin, Michael, Burdge, Kevin B., Bellm, Eric C., Helou, George, Mahabal, Ashish A., Masci, Frank J., Purdum, Josiah, Rosnet, Philippe, Rusholme, Ben

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

The accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising locations for the merger of compact objects detected by gravitational wave (GW) observatories. Embedded within a baryon-rich, high density environment, mergers within AGN are the only GW channel where an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart must occur (whether detectable or not). Considering AGN with unusual flaring activity observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we describe a search for candidate EM counterparts to binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO/Virgo in O3. After removing probable false positives, we find nine candidate counterparts to BBH mergers mergers during O3 (seven in O3a, two in O3b) with a $p$-value of 0.019. Based on ZTF sky coverage, AGN geometry, and merger geometry, we expect $\approx 3(N_{\rm BBH}/83)(f_{\rm AGN}/0.5)$ potentially detectable EM counterparts from O3, where $N_{\rm BBH}$ is the total number of observed BBH mergers and $f_{\rm AGN}$ is the fraction originating in AGN. Further modeling of breakout and flaring phenomena in AGN disks is required to reduce our false positive rate. Two of the events are also associated with mergers with total masses $> 100M_\odot$, which is the expected rate for O3 if hierarchical (large mass) mergers occur in the AGN channel. Candidate EM counterparts in future GW observing runs can be better constrained by coverage of the Southern sky as well as spectral monitoring of unusual AGN flaring events in LIGO/Virgo alert volumes. A future set of reliable AGN EM counterparts to BBH mergers will yield an independent means of measuring cosmic expansion ($H_0$) as a function of redshift.

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