论文标题
引入电网战争：重新思考首发投手的战争
Introducing Grid WAR: Rethinking WAR for Starting Pitchers
论文作者
论文摘要
棒球统计学“胜利替代”（战争）已成为最受欢迎的评估指标之一。但是它不容易观察和列表；战争是对所有伴随假设的模糊定义模型中参数的估计。来自Fangraphs和棒球的首发投手的行业标准战争模型都认为，为期季节的平均值是投手表现的足够统计数据。由于许多原因，这为数学基础提供了无效的基础，尤其是因为战争在任何计数统计范围内都不应是线性的。为了修复这一缺陷以及许多其他缺陷，我们设计了一项新的措施，网格战争，该战争准确地估计了首发投手的战争。网格战争的凸力性减少了“爆炸”游戏和上行杰出游戏的影响，提高了诸如桑迪·库法克斯（Sandy Koufax），怀特·福特（Whitey Ford）和cat鱼猎人等投手的估值，他们展现了基本的逐游戏差异。网格战争旨在准确衡量过去的性能，但就投手的电网战争而言，在预测未来的性能方面也具有预测价值。最后，在https://gridwar.xyz上，我们托管了一个闪亮的应用程序，该应用程序显示自1952年以来每个MLB游戏的网格战争结果，包括职业，季节和游戏水平结果，每天早晨会自动更新。
The baseball statistic "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) has emerged as one of the most popular evaluation metrics. But it is not readily observed and tabulated; WAR is an estimate of a parameter in a vaguely defined model with all its attendant assumptions. Industry-standard models of WAR for starting pitchers from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference all assume that season-long averages are sufficient statistics for a pitcher's performance. This provides an invalid mathematical foundation for many reasons, especially because WAR should not be linear with respect to any counting statistic. To repair this defect, as well as many others, we devise a new measure, Grid WAR, which accurately estimates a starting pitcher's WAR on a per-game basis. The convexity of Grid WAR diminishes the impact of "blow-up" games and upweights exceptional games, raising the valuation of pitchers like Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, and Catfish Hunter who exhibit fundamental game-by-game variance. Grid WAR is designed to accurately measure past performance, but also has predictive value insofar as a pitcher's Grid WAR is better than WAR at predicting future performance. Finally, at https://gridwar.xyz we host a Shiny app which displays the Grid WAR results of each MLB game since 1952, including career, season, and game level results, which updates automatically every morning.
