论文标题

实时流量预测中的剩余校正

Residual Correction in Real-Time Traffic Forecasting

论文作者

Kim, Daejin, Cho, Youngin, Kim, Dongmin, Park, Cheonbok, Choo, Jaegul

论文摘要

预测交通状况非常具有挑战性,因为每条道路在空间和时间上都高度依赖。最近,为了捕获这种空间和时间依赖性,已经引入了专门设计的架构,例如图形卷积网络和时间卷积网络。尽管流量预测取得了显着进展,但我们发现基于深度学习的流量预测模型仍然在某些模式中失败,主要是在事件情况下(例如,快速速度下降)。尽管通常认为这些故障是由于无法预测的噪声造成的,但我们发现可以通过考虑以前的失败来纠正这些故障。具体而言,我们观察到这些故障中的自相关错误,这表明仍然存在一些可预测的信息。在这项研究中,为了捕获错误的相关性,我们引入了Rescal,这是一个用于流量预测的剩余估计模块,作为广泛适用的附加模块,用于现有流量预测模型。我们的恢复通过使用以前的错误和图形信号来估算未来错误,从而实时校准现有模型的预测。对METR-LA和PEMS-BAY进行的广泛实验表明,我们的恢复可以正确捕获错误的相关性,并在事件情况下纠正各种流量预测模型的故障。

Predicting traffic conditions is tremendously challenging since every road is highly dependent on each other, both spatially and temporally. Recently, to capture this spatial and temporal dependency, specially designed architectures such as graph convolutional networks and temporal convolutional networks have been introduced. While there has been remarkable progress in traffic forecasting, we found that deep-learning-based traffic forecasting models still fail in certain patterns, mainly in event situations (e.g., rapid speed drops). Although it is commonly accepted that these failures are due to unpredictable noise, we found that these failures can be corrected by considering previous failures. Specifically, we observe autocorrelated errors in these failures, which indicates that some predictable information remains. In this study, to capture the correlation of errors, we introduce ResCAL, a residual estimation module for traffic forecasting, as a widely applicable add-on module to existing traffic forecasting models. Our ResCAL calibrates the prediction of the existing models in real time by estimating future errors using previous errors and graph signals. Extensive experiments on METR-LA and PEMS-BAY demonstrate that our ResCAL can correctly capture the correlation of errors and correct the failures of various traffic forecasting models in event situations.

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