论文标题
巴黎气候目标的成本和收益
Costs and Benefits of the Paris Climate Targets
论文作者
论文摘要
如果没有非常快速的温室气体排放和从大气中清除二氧化碳的去除，巴黎一致性中的温度目标就无法满足。后者需要大量的，也许是大量的补贴。假设实施最小的气候政策成本的核心估计是2100年GDP的3.8-5.6 \％。对气候政策的收益的核心估计值是不切实际的，假设持续的脆弱性为2.8-3.2 \％GDP的％。对收益的不确定性大于成本的不确定性。巴黎目标不会通过成本效益测试，除非风险规避较高，且折现率低。
The temperature targets in the Paris Agreement cannot be met without very rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The latter requires large, perhaps prohibitively large subsidies. The central estimate of the costs of climate policy, unrealistically assuming least-cost implementation, is 3.8-5.6\% of GDP in 2100. The central estimate of the benefits of climate policy, unrealistically assuming constant vulnerability, is 2.8-3.2\% of GDP. The uncertainty about the benefits is larger than the uncertainty about the costs. The Paris targets do not pass the cost-benefit test unless risk aversion is high and discount rate low.
