论文标题
使用马尔可夫链的企业大小过渡动力学的描述性方法
A Descriptive Method of Firm Size Transition Dynamics Using Markov Chain
论文作者
论文摘要
社会就业主要由不同类型的公司携带，决定了一个国家的繁荣和稳定。随着时间的流逝，公司就业的波动可以反映创造或破坏工作的过程。因此，调查公司就业（大小）动态是有益的。根据《 1998 - 2013年中国工业企业数据库》提取的公司级面板数据，本文提出了一种基于马尔可夫链的描述性方法，以清楚地证明不同大小类别之间的企业大小转移动态。使用此方法，可以直观地证明任何企业大小的过渡路径。此外，通过利用马尔可夫转移矩阵的特性，引入并估算了过渡趋势和过渡熵的定义。结果，可以精确地揭示小型，中和大之间的企业大小转移的趋势，并且可以量化尺寸变化的不确定性。通常，从本文的证据来看，可以推断出中国的中小型制造公司在这段时间内与大型公司相比具有更大的创造潜力。
Social employment, which is mostly carried by firms of different types, determines the prosperity and stability of a country. As time passing, the fluctuations of firm employment can reflect the process of creating or destroying jobs. Therefore, it is instructive to investigate the firm employment (size) dynamics. Drawing on the firm-level panel data extracted from the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database 1998-2013, this paper proposes a Markov-chain-based descriptive approach to clearly demonstrate the firm size transfer dynamics between different size categories. With this method, any firm size transition path in a short time period can be intuitively demonstrated. Furthermore, by utilizing the properties of Markov transfer matrices, the definition of transition trend and the transition entropy are introduced and estimated. As a result, the tendency of firm size transfer between small, medium and large can be exactly revealed, and the uncertainty of size change can be quantified. Generally from the evidence of this paper, it can be inferred that small and medium manufacturing firms in China have greater job creation potentials compared to large firms over this time period.
