论文标题
使用概率图形建模的导轨断路和出轨预测
Rail break and derailment prediction using Probabilistic Graphical Modelling
论文作者
论文摘要
铁路休息是国际脱轨的最常见原因之一。这对南非铁矿石线没有什么不同。当大型火车经过裂缝，大缺陷或有缺陷的焊缝时，许多铁路断裂发生。在这种情况下，火车及时放慢以防止驱逐出境的时间通常为时已晚。知道发生轨道断路的风险与火车经过一部分铁轨有关，可以更好地实施维护计划和缓解措施。在本文中，讨论了矿石线的具体挑战，并审查了当前可用于创建Rail Break风险预测模型的数据。然后提出了矿石线的基本铁路断裂风险预测模型的开发。最后，通过讨论各种铁路断裂风险的各种情况来证明从模型中获得的见解。在将来的工作中，我们计划扩展此基本模型，以允许从实时监控系统（例如超声波破碎的铁路检测系统）输入。
Rail breaks are one of the most common causes of derailments internationally. This is no different for the South African Iron Ore line. Many rail breaks occur as a heavy-haul train passes over a crack, large defect or defective weld. In such cases, it is usually too late for the train to slow down in time to prevent a de-railment. Knowing the risk of a rail break occurring associated with a train passing over a section of rail allows for better implementation of maintenance initiatives and mitigating measures. In this paper the Ore Line's specific challenges are discussed and the currently available data that can be used to create a rail break risk prediction model is reviewed. The development of a basic rail break risk prediction model for the Ore Line is then presented. Finally the insight gained from the model is demonstrated by means of discussing various scenarios of various rail break risk. In future work, we are planning on extending this basic model to allow input from live monitoring systems such as the ultrasonic broken rail detection system.
