论文标题
一种简单直观的方法，用于计算复杂流行模型中的$ r_0 $
A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_0$ in complex epidemic models
论文作者
论文摘要
流行模型是决策过程中的宝贵工具。一旦建立了流行病的数学模型，下一步就是计算基本生殖数字的数学表达式，即$ r_0 $，这是由个体引入的平均感染数量，该感染引起了一个易感人群中引入的个人。为$ r_0 $找到数学表达很重要，因为它允许分析模型中不同参数对$ r_0 $的效果，以便我们可以采取行动以保持$ r_0 <1 <1 $，以使流行病逐渐消失。在这项工作中，我们仅使用马尔可夫链的基本概念来展示如何在复杂流行模型中计算$ R_0 $。
Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which is the average number of infections caused by an individual that is introduced in a population of susceptibles. Finding a mathematical expression for $R_0$ is important because it allows to analyze the effect of the different parameters in the model on $R_0$ so that we can act on them to keep $R_0 < 1$, so that the epidemic fades out. In this work we show how to calculate $R_0$ in complicated epidemic models by using only basic concepts of Markov chains.
