论文标题
Modélisationspatio-temporelle de l'lustrization des Masques par le Grand Public en Guadeloupe et en Martinique
Modélisation spatio-temporelle de l'utilisation des masques par le grand public en Guadeloupe et en Martinique
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们开发了一个确定性的隔室模型，包括时空方面以及公众对Covid-19-19的流行病的传播。该模型基于Kermack和McKendrick的SIR模型，其中包括模拟瓜德罗普和玛蒂尼克之间戴口罩的运动的移动性术语。该模型的目的是分析公众在这两个区域中的流动性和戴面具的影响。该模型的数量模拟表明，即使这些模型不太效果，并且表明该模型不太能够进行定性模拟趋势。这项工作是我的博士学位论文的一部分，该论文的主题为“岛屿环境中的covid-19的随机建模”，考虑到时空的方面»。
In this article, we develop a deterministic compartmental model including the spatio-temporal aspect and the wearing of masks by the general public for the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. This model is based on the SIR model of Kermack and McKendrick and includes mobility terms that model the movement of individuals wearing masks between Guadeloupe andMartinique. The objective of the model is to analyze the effects of mobility and the wearing of masks by the general public on the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in these two regions.Numerical simulations of this model show the importance of wearing masks by the general public, even if they are not very inefficient, and indicate that the model is capable of qualitatively simulating the propagation trends of the Covid-19 epidemic. This work is part ofmy doctoral thesis, the subject of which is entitled « stochastic modeling of Covid-19 in an island environment taking into account the spatio-temporal aspect ».
