论文标题
细节还是不确定性？应用全球灵敏度分析以在能源系统模型中取得平衡
Detail or uncertainty? Applying global sensitivity analysis to strike a balance in energy system models
论文作者
论文摘要
能源系统模板通常诉诸简化的系统表示形式和确定性模型公式（即不考虑不确定性）来保留计算障碍。但是，降低的细节水平和被忽视的不确定性都可以导致次优系统设计。在本文中，我们提出了一种新颖的方法，该方法可以定量比较细节和不确定性的影响，以指导模型开发并帮助有限的计算资源的优先级。通过将建模选择视为全局灵敏度分析中的附加“不确定”参数，该方法确定了它们针对常规输入参数的定性排名。作为案例研究，该方法应用于英国的同行评审热脱碳模型，目的是评估空间分辨率的重要性。结果表明，尽管对于最佳总系统，空间分辨率的影响却可以忽略不计，但它是确定电力，气体和热网络能力的最重要因素。
Energy systems modellers often resort to simplified system representations and deterministic model formulations (i.e., not considering uncertainty) to preserve computational tractability. However, reduced levels of detail and neglected uncertainties can both lead to sub-optimal system designs. In this paper, we present a novel method that quantitatively compares the impact of detail and uncertainty to guide model development and help prioritisation of the limited computational resources. By considering modelling choices as an additional 'uncertain' parameter in a global sensitivity analysis, the method determines their qualitative ranking against conventional input parameters. As a case study, the method is applied to a peer-reviewed heat decarbonisation model for the United Kingdom with the objective of assessing the importance of spatial resolution. The results show that while for the optimal total system cost the impact of spatial resolution is negligible, it is the most important factor determining the capacities of electricity, gas and heat networks.
