论文标题

关于贝叶斯学习预测构建的概率观点

A probabilistic view on predictive constructions for Bayesian learning

论文作者

Berti, Patrizia, Dreassi, Emanuela, Leisen, Fabrizio, Rigo, Pietro, Pratelli, Luca

论文摘要

给定一个序列$ x =(x_1,x_2,\ ldots)$的随机观测值,贝叶斯预报员的目标是基于$(x_1,\ ldots,x_n)$预测$ x_ {n+1} $,每$ n \ ge 0 $。为此,原则上,她只需要选择一个集合$σ=(σ_0,σ_1,\ ldots)$,称为````''''''''在下面的内容中,其中$σ_0(\ cdot)= p(x_1 \ in \ cdot)$是$ x_1 $和$ x_1 $和$ x_1 $和$ x_1 $ and和$σ_n(\ cdot)= p(x_ {n+1} \ in \ cdot \ mid x_1,\ ldots,x_n)$ $ n $ th $ th $ th $ the预测分布。是贝叶斯学习的预测方法。固定序列。

Given a sequence $X=(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of random observations, a Bayesian forecaster aims to predict $X_{n+1}$ based on $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ for each $n\ge 0$. To this end, in principle, she only needs to select a collection $σ=(σ_0,σ_1,\ldots)$, called ``strategy" in what follows, where $σ_0(\cdot)=P(X_1\in\cdot)$ is the marginal distribution of $X_1$ and $σ_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ the $n$-th predictive distribution. Because of the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, $σ$ can be assigned directly, without passing through the usual prior/posterior scheme. One main advantage is that no prior probability is to be selected. In a nutshell, this is the predictive approach to Bayesian learning. A concise review of the latter is provided in this paper. We try to put such an approach in the right framework, to make clear a few misunderstandings, and to provide a unifying view. Some recent results are discussed as well. In addition, some new strategies are introduced and the corresponding distribution of the data sequence $X$ is determined. The strategies concern generalized Pólya urns, random change points, covariates and stationary sequences.

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