论文标题
建模土地转化对epizootis疾病传播的作用
Modeling the Role of Land Conversion on the Spread of an Epizootic Disease
论文作者
论文摘要
土地conversion依以及驯养物种和野生物种之间的接触可以说是过去一个世纪中新型epizootic和人畜共患病出现的最大贡献者。这些相互作用的意外后果是人畜共患病或epizootic疾病从野生物种到人类及其家人的溢出。疾病溢出是土地转化的边缘效应，对转化区域的大小和形状敏感。我们将景观生态学的空间指标与理论流行病学模型相结合，以了解土地转化的大小和形状如何影响单个和两个物种种群的epizootic和人畜共患病传播。我们表明，转化的区域的紧凑程度越小，接触区的深度越大，引入的疾病越快就会通过驯养人群传播。
Land conversion and the resulting contact between domesticated and wild species has arguably been the single largest contributor to the emergence of novel epizootic and zoonotic diseases in the past century. An unintended consequence of these interactions is zoonotic or epizootic disease spillovers from wild species to humans and their domesticates. Disease spillovers are edge effects of land conversion and are sensitive to the size and shape of converted areas. We combine spatial metrics from landscape ecology with theoretical epidemiological models to understand how the size and shape of land conversion affect epizootic and zoonotic disease transmission of single and two species populations. We show that the less compact the converted area, and the the greater the depth of the contact zone, the more rapidly will an introduced disease spread through the domesticated population.
