论文标题
大流行病抑制经济，公共卫生干预措施没有：1918年流感的证据
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了1918年流感大流行期间，非药物干预措施（NPI）对美国城市的死亡率和经济活动的影响。快速和严格的NPI的组合将峰死亡率降低了50％，累积过剩死亡率降低了24％至34％。但是，尽管大流行本身与短期经济中断有关，但我们发现，在严格和宽大的NPI的城市中，这些破坏是相似的。 NPI也没有恶化中型经济成果。我们的发现表明，NPI可以减少疾病的传播而不会进一步抑制经济活动，这一发现也反映在当代报纸上的讨论中。
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.
