论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Respiration driven CO2 pulses dominate Australia's flux variability

论文作者

Metz, Eva-Marie, Vardag, Sanam N., Basu, Sourish, Jung, Martin, Ahrens, Bernhard, El-Madany, Tarek, Sitch, Stephen, Arora, Vivek K., Briggs, Peter R., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Goll, Daniel S., Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Lombardozzi, Danica, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Poulter, Benjamin, Séférian, Roland, Tian, Hanqin, Wiltshire, Andrew, Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Xu, Zaehle, Sönke, Deutscher, Nicholas M., Griffith, David W. T., Butz, André

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in-situ observations in remote areas prevents deciphering the processes that force the CO2 flux variability. Here, examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009-2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia's CO2 balance, due to 2-3 times higher seasonal variations compared to previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The CO2 pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia's semi-arid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil rewetting processes has large implications for our understanding and modelling of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

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