论文标题
关于人口分布的空间聚集
Spatial Aggregation with Respect to a Population Distribution
论文作者
论文摘要
相对于人群分布的空间聚集涉及根据对亚种群中对个体的观察的估计人群的汇总数量。在这种情况下,地理工作流程必须说明“聚合误差”的三个主要来源:聚合权重,细节变化和有限的种群变化。但是,普遍的做法是将未知的人口分布视为已知的人群密度,而忽略了结果的经验变异性。我们通过引入“采样框架模型”来改善常见实践,该模型允许聚合模型简单透明地考虑到聚集误差的三个来源。 我们使用两项模拟研究比较了所提出的方法和传统方法,这些研究模仿了2014年肯尼亚人口统计和健康调查(KDHS2014)的新生儿死亡率(NMR)数据。对于传统方法,底层/覆盖范围的底层/覆盖层任意取决于聚集网格分辨率,而新方法则表现出较低的灵敏度。随着面积的数量减少,两种聚合方法之间的差异增加。在第二个行政层面上,差异很大,并且在某些人口数量方面也是第一个行政层面。我们发现所提出的方法与传统方法之间的差异与我们在KDHS2014中NMR数据应用中观察到的方法一致。
Spatial aggregation with respect to a population distribution involves estimating aggregate quantities for a population based on an observation of individuals in a subpopulation. In this context, a geostatistical workflow must account for three major sources of `aggregation error': aggregation weights, fine scale variation, and finite population variation. However, common practice is to treat the unknown population distribution as a known population density and ignore empirical variability in outcomes. We improve common practice by introducing a `sampling frame model' that allows aggregation models to account for the three sources of aggregation error simply and transparently. We compare the proposed and the traditional approach using two simulation studies that mimic neonatal mortality rate (NMR) data from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS2014). For the traditional approach, undercoverage/overcoverage depends arbitrarily on the aggregation grid resolution, while the new approach exhibits low sensitivity. The differences between the two aggregation approaches increase as the population of an area decreases. The differences are substantial at the second administrative level and finer, but also at the first administrative level for some population quantities. We find differences between the proposed and traditional approach are consistent with those we observe in an application to NMR data from the KDHS2014.