论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Addressing unobserved heterogeneity at road user level for the analysis of conflict risk at tunnel toll plaza: A correlated grouped random parameters logit approach with heterogeneity in means
论文作者
论文摘要
收费广场是高速公路,桥梁和隧道的指定区域,用于收集收费。通常将许多收费站放置在收费广场,以容纳高传递的流量和多种付款方式。收费广场的交通和安全特征与其他道路实体不同。通常采用了通常是纵向的冲突风险指标,用于实时安全评估。在这项研究中,建立了具有异质性的相关分组的随机参数logit模型,以捕获未观察到的异质性,具有额外的灵活性,在道路用户水平上,以冲突风险与影响因素之间的关联。此外,开发了修改的冲突风险指标,以评估交通交通的分歧,合并和编织运动的安全性,并考虑了车辆的尺寸(宽度和长度),并考虑了纵向和角移动。同样,还评估了后端和侧叶冲突的患病率和严重程度。结果表明收集类型,车辆的位置,平均纵向速度,角速度,加速度和车辆类都影响了交通冲突的风险。此外,严重的交通冲突的随机参数之间存在显着相关性。提出的分析方法可以适应不同冲突类型的冲突风险分析,并解释未观察到的异质性的相关性。调查结果应阐明适当的补救措施,例如交通标志,道路标记和高级交通管理系统,以改善隧道收费广场的安全性。
Toll plaza is a designated area of controlled-access roads like expressway, bridge, and tunnel for toll collection. A number of toll booths are often placed at the toll plaza accommodating high passing traffic and multiple payment methods. Traffic and safety characteristics of toll plazas are different from that of other road entities. Different conflict risk indicators, which are usually longitudinal, have been adopted for real-time safety assessment. In this study, correlated grouped random parameter logit models with heterogeneity in the means are established to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, with additional flexibility, at road user level for the association between conflict risk and influencing factors. In addition, modified conflict risk indicator is developed to assess the safety of diverging, merging, and weaving movements of traffic, with which vehicles' dimensions (width and length), and longitudinal and angular movements are considered. Also, prevalence and severity of both rear-end and sideswipe conflicts are assessed. Results indicate that toll collection type, vehicle's location, average longitudinal speed, angular speed, acceleration, and vehicle class all affect the risk of traffic conflicts. Furthermore, there are significant correlation among the random parameters of severe traffic conflicts. Proposed analytic method can accommodate the conflict risk analysis for different conflict types and account for the correlation of unobserved heterogeneity. Findings should shed light on appropriate remedial measures like traffic signs, road markings, and advanced traffic management system that can improve the safety at tunnel toll plazas.