论文标题

关于使用动态模式分解以预测在波浪中运行的船只的时间序列

On the use of dynamic mode decomposition for time-series forecasting of ships operating in waves

论文作者

Serani, Andrea, Dragone, Paolo, Stern, Frederick, Diez, Matteo

论文摘要

为了确保有效载荷,机组人员和结构的安全性,船只必须在不利天气条件下运行时表现出良好的海务,可操作性和结构性响应性能。在这种情况下,将包含在模型预测的控制方法中的预测方法的可用性可能代表了决定性因素。在这里,基于动态模式分解(DMD),介绍了一种用于对波浪中轨迹,运动和力的预测的数据驱动和无方程建模方法。 DMD是一种数据驱动的建模方法,它通过一组具有相关频率的模式提供了可能非线性系统动力学的线性有限维表示。它用于在波浪中运行的船舶的使用很少,在这种情况下仍需要对其预测能力进行系统分析。在这里,对波浪的船舶进行了DMD预测能力的统计分析,包括标准和增强DMD。统计评估使用多个时间序列,研究了输入/输出波的数量,时间步骤,时间导数的效果,以及使用Hankel Matrix的时间缩短副本的使用。预测能力的评估基于四个指标:归一化均方根误差,皮尔逊相关系数,平均角度测量和归一化的平均最小/最大绝对误差。两种测试用例用于评估:在不规则的船尾季度波中保留自propell的541.5m的路线,以及在常规波浪中自由运行的自propelled Kriso容器船的转弯圈。结果总体上是有希望的,并显示了状态增强(使用四个到八个输入波,最多两次衍生词和四个转移的副本)如何提高DMD预测能力,最多可在...中最多两个波动遇到周期。

In order to guarantee the safety of payload, crew, and structures, ships must exhibit good seakeeping, maneuverability, and structural-response performance, also when they operate in adverse weather conditions. In this context, the availability of forecasting methods to be included within model-predictive control approaches may represent a decisive factor. Here, a data-driven and equation-free modeling approach for forecasting of trajectories, motions, and forces of ships in waves is presented, based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). DMD is a data-driven modeling method, which provides a linear finite-dimensional representation of a possibly nonlinear system dynamics by means of a set of modes with associated frequencies. Its use for ship operating in waves has been little discussed and a systematic analysis of its forecasting capabilities is still needed in this context. Here, a statistical analysis of DMD forecasting capabilities is presented for ships in waves, including standard and augmented DMD. The statistical assessment uses multiple time series, studying the effects of the number of input/output waves, time steps, time derivatives, along with the use of time-shifted copies of time series by the Hankel matrix. The assessment of the forecasting capabilities is based on four metrics: normalized root mean square error, Pearson correlation coefficient, average angle measure, and normalized average minimum/maximum absolute error. Two test cases are used for the assessment: the course keeping of a self-propelled 5415M in irregular stern-quartering waves and the turning-circle of a free-running self-propelled KRISO Container Ship in regular waves. Results are overall promising and show how state augmentation (using from four to eight input waves, up to two time derivatives, and four time-shifted copies) improves the DMD forecasting capabilities up to two wave encounter periods in ...

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