论文标题
非线性健康动态的福利效应
The welfare effects of nonlinear health dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
我们产生了一种持续的健康量度，以估计健康动态的非参数模型，这表明，当健康状况不佳时，不良健康冲击会高度持久。规范模型无法解释这种模式。我们将这种健康动态纳入消费，储蓄和劳动力参与的生命周期模型。估计模型参数后，我们模拟了健康冲击对经济结果的影响。我们发现，不良健康冲击会产生长期不利的经济影响，这对健康状况不佳的人更加极端。此外，不良的健康冲击还增加了这组人中资产积累的差异。健康动态的规范模型不会揭示这些影响。
We generate a continuous measure of health to estimate a non-parametric model of health dynamics, showing that adverse health shocks are highly persistent when suffered by people in poor health. Canonical models cannot account for this pattern. We incorporate this health dynamic into a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, and labor force participation. After estimating the model parameters, we simulate the effects of health shocks on economic outcomes. We find that bad health shocks have long-term adverse economic effects that are more extreme for those in poor health. Furthermore, bad health shocks also increase the disparity of asset accumulation among this group of people. A canonical model of health dynamics would not reveal these effects.
