论文标题
抵押贷款调整后的房价
Mortgage-Rate-Adjusted Home Prices
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们调查了抵押贷款利率对房价的影响，以及如何使用该影响来帮助个人买方级别的房地产购买讨论并跨时间调整房价指数。通过（预期）抵押贷款利率变化的存在，通过抵押贷款率调整后的“有效价格”来衡量近期财产价格。然后，基于“有效价格”来建立价格抵押贷款利率中立线，以帮助在短期内区分各种市场方案，潜在买家可以在其“购买或不可购买的”审议中使用。在市场层面上，有效的房价允许抵押贷款利率对住房市场的发展进行中和。中和策略应用于案件式房屋价格指数（HPI）表明，长期以来，美国住房市场受抵押贷款利率动态的影响很大。但是，抵押贷款利率似乎并不是19009年大流行期间房屋价格上涨的主要驱动力。
In this paper, we investigate the impact of mortgage rates on home prices, and how the impact may be used to help property purchase discussions at individual buyer level and to adjust home price indices across time. A mortgage-rate-adjusted "effective price" is derived to measure near term property price in the presence of (expected) mortgage rate changes. A price-mortgage rate neutrality line is then constructed based on the "effective price" to help differentiate various market scenarios in the near term, which can be used by prospective buyers in their "to-buy or not-to-buy" deliberations. At the market level, effective home prices allow for neutralization of mortgage rates on the movement of the housing market. An application of the neutralization strategy to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) indicates that the U.S. housing market has been considerably affected by the dynamics of mortgage rates in a long run. But mortgage rates do no appear a primary driver of the extraordinary home price increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.
