论文标题
与基质分布的联合寿命建模
Joint lifetime modelling with matrix distributions
论文作者
论文摘要
无环相型(pH)分布已成为生存分析中的流行工具,这要归功于它们在衰老方面对其不可避免的吸收而自然解释。在本文中,我们考虑了联合寿命建模的双变量设置的扩展。与文献中以前的模型基于对边缘行为的单独估计和通过副群的依赖性结构的单独估计相反,我们提出了一个新的多变量pH类(MIPH)的新型时间均匀版本,该版本可导致关节寿命的模型,而无需分离。我们研究MIPH类成员的属性,并提供适应的估计程序,以允许右审查和协变信息。我们表明,我们的结构中的初始分布向量可以量身定制以反映随机变量的依赖性,并使用多项式回归来确定协变量对起始概率的影响。此外,我们从所需的阶段来强调了灵活性和简约,这是由时间激素引入的。给出了Frees等人的著名数据集的数值插图。 [15],其中有10个阶段足以进行合理的拟合性能。作为一种副产品,所提出的方法可以在关节寿命的老化机理中对关联的自然因果解释,这超出了统计拟合度。
Acyclic phase-type (PH) distributions have been a popular tool in survival analysis, thanks to their natural interpretation in terms of ageing towards its inevitable absorption. In this paper, we consider an extension to the bivariate setting for the modelling of joint lifetimes. In contrast to previous models in the literature that were based on a separate estimation of the marginal behavior and the dependence structure through a copula, we propose a new time-inhomogeneous version of a multivariate PH class (mIPH) that leads to a model for joint lifetimes without that separation. We study properties of mIPH class members and provide an adapted estimation procedure that allows for right-censoring and covariate information. We show that initial distribution vectors in our construction can be tailored to reflect the dependence of the random variables, and use multinomial regression to determine the influence of covariates on starting probabilities. Moreover, we highlight the flexibility and parsimony, in terms of needed phases, introduced by the time-inhomogeneity. Numerical illustrations are given for the famous data set of joint lifetimes of Frees et al. [15], where 10 phases turn out to be sufficient for a reasonable fitting performance. As a by-product, the proposed approach enables a natural causal interpretation of the association in the ageing mechanism of joint lifetimes that goes beyond a statistical fit.