论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
A SIQRB delayed model for cholera and optimal control treatment
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We improve a recent mathematical model for cholera by adding a time delay that represents the time between the instant at which an individual becomes infected and the instant at which he begins to have symptoms of cholera disease. We prove that the delayed cholera model is biologically meaningful and analyze the local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points for positive time delays. An optimal control problem is proposed and analyzed, where the goal is to obtain optimal treatment strategies, through quarantine, that minimize the number of infective individuals and the bacterial concentration, as well as treatment costs. Necessary optimality conditions are applied to the delayed optimal control problem, with a $L^1$ type cost functional. We show that the delayed cholera model fits better the cholera outbreak that occurred in the Department of Artibonite -- Haiti, from 1 November 2010 to 1 May 2011, than the non-delayed model. Considering the data of the cholera outbreak in Haiti, we solve numerically the delayed optimal control problem and propose solutions for the outbreak control and eradication.