论文标题
再见原始罪，Hello风险on-On-On-Off，Fanancial脆弱性和危机？
Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了八个主要新兴市场（EMS）的主权债券发行数据 - 巴西，中国，印度，印度尼西亚，墨西哥，俄罗斯，南非，南非和土耳其在1970年至2018年。我们的分析表明，（i）本地货币债券的规模往往更小，票房较小，或票房较低的外币汇率比外币汇率较小。 （ii）如果EMS在2008年全球金融危机之前对其货币表示赞赏（GFC），则更有可能发行地方货币主权债券； （iii）涉及通货膨胀的货币政策增加了在全球税前发行地方货币债务的可能性，但不在之后； （iv）提供更高主权收益率的EMS更有可能在全球金融市场委员会后发行局部货币债券。未来的数据将使我们能够测试和确定与19岁大流行有关的结构变化及其后果。
We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EMs) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey from 1970 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that (i) EM local currency bonds tend to be smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in coupon rate than foreign currency bonds; (ii) EMs are more likely to issue local-currency sovereign bonds if their currencies appreciated before the global financial crisis of 2008 (GFC); (iii) inflation-targeting monetary policy increases the likelihood of issuing local-currency debt before GFC but not after; and (iv) EMs that offer higher sovereign yields are more likely to issue local-currency bonds after GFC. Future data will allow us to test and identify structural changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
