论文标题

计算鲑鱼农场之间的海虱分散的时间和概率

Calculating the timing and probability of arrival for sea lice dispersing between salmon farms

论文作者

Harrington, Peter D., Cantrell, Danielle L., Foreman, Michael G. G., Guo, Ming, Lewis, Mark A.

论文摘要

海虱对野生和养殖鲑鱼的健康以及鲑鱼农场的经济负担都有威胁。凭借免费的幼虫阶段,海虱可以在鲑鱼农场之间的海洋中分散数十公里,从而导致连接的海虱种群难以孤立地控制。在本文中,我们开发了一个简单的分析模型,以分散两个鲑鱼农场之间的海虱。从该模型中,我们计算出农场之间的海虱分散的到达时间分布以及海虱的交叉感染水平。我们还使用来自流体动力模型的数值流,再加上粒子跟踪模型,直接计算卑诗省布劳顿群岛两个农场之间的海虱分散的到达时间,以适合我们的分析模型并找到现实的参数估计。使用参数化的分析模型,我们表明通常存在中间的农场间距,可以最大程度地提高农场之间的跨感染水平,并且温度升高将导致跨感染水平升高。

Sea lice are a threat to the health of both wild and farmed salmon and an economic burden for salmon farms. With a free living larval stage, sea lice can disperse tens of kilometers in the ocean between salmon farms, leading to connected sea lice populations that are difficult to control in isolation. In this paper we develop a simple analytical model for the dispersal of sea lice between two salmon farms. From the model we calculate the arrival time distribution of sea lice dispersing between farms, as well as the level of cross-infection of sea lice. We also use numerical flows from a hydrodynamic model, coupled with a particle tracking model, to directly calculate the arrival time of sea lice dispersing between two farms in the Broughton Archipelago, BC, in order to fit our analytical model and find realistic parameter estimates. Using the parametrized analytical model we show that there is often an intermediate inter-farm spacing that maximizes the level of cross infection between farms, and that increased temperatures will lead to increased levels of cross infection.

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