论文标题
土地利用过滤,用于在城市环境中非本质上的集体效力预测
Land-Use Filtering for Nonstationary Prediction of Collective Efficacy in an Urban Environment
论文作者
论文摘要
集体效能 - 社区在实现其共同目标方面实施社会控制的能力 - 是城市社会学和邻里效应文献中的基础概念。传统上,集体功效的实证研究使用大量样本调查来估计城市环境中不同社区的集体疗效。这样的研究表明,集体效力与社区暴力,教育成就和健康的地方差异之间存在联系。与传统的集体效力衡量策略不同,在上下文中的青少年健康与发展(AHDC)研究实施了一种新方法,从居住在俄亥俄州哥伦布市的代表性个人中获得了以空间引起的,基于位置的集体效能的评级。在本文中,我们介绍了一个新型的非组织空间模型,用于整个研究领域的AHDC集体效力等级的插值,该模型利用了有关土地使用的行政数据。我们的建设性模型规范策略涉及潜在空间过程的尺寸扩展以及通过研究区域的土地利用分区定义的过滤器,将潜在的多元空间过程与观察到的集体功效的序数等级联系起来。仔细考虑参数可识别性问题,模型拟合的MCMC算法的计算效率以及集体效率的精细空间预测。
Collective efficacy -- the capacity of communities to exert social control toward the realization of their shared goals -- is a foundational concept in the urban sociology and neighborhood effects literature. Traditionally, empirical studies of collective efficacy use large sample surveys to estimate collective efficacy of different neighborhoods within an urban setting. Such studies have demonstrated an association between collective efficacy and local variation in community violence, educational achievement, and health. Unlike traditional collective efficacy measurement strategies, the Adolescent Health and Development in Context (AHDC) Study implemented a new approach, obtaining spatially-referenced, place-based ratings of collective efficacy from a representative sample of individuals residing in Columbus, OH. In this paper, we introduce a novel nonstationary spatial model for interpolation of the AHDC collective efficacy ratings across the study area which leverages administrative data on land use. Our constructive model specification strategy involves dimension expansion of a latent spatial process and the use of a filter defined by the land-use partition of the study region to connect the latent multivariate spatial process to the observed ordinal ratings of collective efficacy. Careful consideration is given to the issues of parameter identifiability, computational efficiency of an MCMC algorithm for model fitting, and fine-scale spatial prediction of collective efficacy.