论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
On the control over the distribution of ticks based on the extensions of the KISS model
论文作者
论文摘要
壁虱和壁虱传播疾病对全球许多地区的人们的健康构成了众所周知的威胁。科学文献既致力于现场观察，又要建模壁虱的传播。到目前为止，大多数数学研究都专门基于普通微分方程的模型，在这些模型中，通过离散参数考虑了空间可变性。只有很少的论文使用空间非平凡的扩散模型，它们主要用于空间均匀的平衡。在这里，我们为强调空间异质性的壁虱传播开发了扩散模型。这使我们能够评估可以创建的控制区域的尺寸（使用各种可用技术）生成一个斑驳的领域，最终将在其上消除壁虱。使用从各种现场观测值中获得的平均参数，我们将理论结果应用于北美孤星壁虱和俄罗斯的Taiga tick虫的具体案例。
Ticks and tick-borne diseases present a well known threat to the health of people in many parts of the globe. The scientific literature devoted both to field observations and to modeling the propagation of ticks continues to grow. So far the majority of the mathematical studies were devoted to models based on ordinary differential equations, where spatial variability was taken into account by a discrete parameter. Only few papers use spatially nontrivial diffusion models, and they are devoted mostly to spatially homogeneous equilibria. Here we develop diffusion models for the propagation of ticks stressing spatial heterogeneity. This allows us to assess the sizes of control zones that can be created (using various available techniques) to produce a patchy territory, on which ticks will be eventually eradicated. Using averaged parameters taken from various field observations we apply our theoretical results to the concrete cases of the lone star ticks of North America and of the taiga ticks of Russia.
