论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Multi-Asset Bubbles Equilibrium Price Dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
The price-bubble and crash process formation is theoretically investigated in a two-asset equilibrium model. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived for the existence of average equilibrium price dynamics of different agent-based models, where agents are distinguished in terms of factor and investment trading strategies. In line with experimental results, we show that assets with a positive average dividend, i.e., with a strictly declining fundamental value, display at the equilibrium price the typical hump-shaped bubble observed in experimental asset markets. Moreover, a misvaluation effect is observed in the asset with a constant fundamental value, triggered by the other asset that displays the price bubble shape when a sharp price decline is exhibited at the end of the market.
