论文标题
老年人想工作吗？建模老年人决定与泰国老化的决定
Do elderly want to work? Modeling elderly's decision to fight aging Thailand
论文作者
论文摘要
自2000年以来，泰国就进入了一个衰老的社会。使用泰国国家统计局收集的泰国老年人的2017年调查，本研究使用了交叉列表，随机森林，具有可变的重要性措施和套索逻辑回归的随机森林来检查对老年人在退休后在退休后仍在劳动力市场中产生影响的因素。这项研究表明，这些以下变量：年龄，教育水平，医疗保健资格，婚姻状况，健康状况，总资产，性别，住宅类型，家庭中的老年人百分比以及儿童人数对老年人继续工作的渴望产生了强烈的影响。通过知道哪些因素有助于老年人希望继续在市场上工作，这项研究允许未来对泰国老年人的劳动力市场进行预测。我们的随机森林和拉索逻辑回归的最终模型分别对老年人的工作渴望提供了68.19％和69.58％的预测准确性。这项研究产生了重大影响，因为决策者可以利用我们的模型来预测老年人在退休年龄后的工作渴望，并设计一个将来可以容纳泰国老年人的劳动力市场。
Thailand has entered into an aging society since the year 2000. Using the 2017 Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand collected by Thailand National Statistical Office, this study uses cross tabulation, random forest with variable importance measure and lasso logistic regression to examine factors that have effects on the elderly's decision to remain in the labor market after retirement. This study reveals that these following variables: age, education level, healthcare eligibility, marital status, health condition, total assets, gender, residential type, percent of elderly in the household, and number of children have strong influences on an elderly's desire to continue work. By knowing which factors contribute to the elderly wish to continue work in the market, this research allows for future prediction of the labor market that can accommodate elderly in Thailand. Our final models of random forest and lasso logistic regression provide prediction accuracy of 68.19 and 69.58 percent on the elderly's desire to work, respectively. This study has a significant impact as policymakers can utilize our models in predicting elderly's desire to work after retirement age and design a labor market that can accommodate elderly in Thailand in the future.
