论文标题
克服能源系统与气候建模之间的断开连接
Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling
论文作者
论文摘要
能源系统模型是能源系统规划人员和运营商决定的决策。能源系统建模面临转换：考虑气候变化施加的气象条件的变化。为了实现这种转变，一个能源气候建模的实践社区已经开始形成，旨在更好地将能源系统模型与天气和气候模型整合在一起。在这里，我们评估了能源系统与气候建模社区之间的断开连接，然后制定了研究议程来弥合这些断开连接。在近期，我们提出了跨学科活动，以加快能源系统建模中未来气候数据的吸收。从长远来看，我们提出了一种跨学科方法，以使（1）为历史和未来气象条件的能源系统限制气候数据集开发（1）能够有效利用这些数据集的能源系统模型。该议程通过系统地捕获和减轻能源部门决策的气候风险来实现雄心勃勃的气候缓解目标的几率。
Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modelling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modelling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. Here, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modelling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modelling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision making.
