论文标题
模拟平民枪支所有权在暴力犯罪进化中的影响
Modeling the impact of civilian firearm ownership in the evolution of violent crimes
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个简单的数学模型来描述暴力犯罪的演变。为此，我们建立了一个基于普通微分方程的模型，该模型考虑了暴力犯罪的数量以及法律和非法枪支的数量。该动态受概率约束，例如警察行动，对导致法定枪支所有权增加的犯罪的风险感知等等。我们的分析和数值结果表明，除了由于存在非法枪支而导致犯罪性的兴起外，法定枪支的增加导致暴力犯罪的迅速增加，这表明平民对枪支的接触不是控制犯罪的好选择。
We propose a simple mathematical model to describe the evolution of violent crimes. For such purpose, we built a model based on ordinary differential equations that take into account the number of violent crimes and the number of legal and illegal guns. The dynamics is governed by probabilities, modeling for example the police action, the risk perception regarding crimes that leads to increase of ownership of legal guns, and so on. Our analytical and numerical results show that, in addition to the rise of criminality due to the presence of illegal guns, the increase of legal guns leads to a fast increase of violent crimes, suggesting that the access of firearms by civilians is not a good option regarding the control of crimes.
