论文标题
使用经过依次培训的多对分LSTMS在金融市场中对时间序列的实时预测
Real-time Forecasting of Time Series in Financial Markets Using Sequentially Trained Many-to-one LSTMs
论文作者
论文摘要
金融市场高度复杂和动荡。因此,为了做出预测而学习此类市场对于提早警报崩溃和随后的回收率至关重要。人们一直在使用各种领域的学习工具,例如金融数学和机器学习,以便在此类市场上做出值得信赖的预测。但是,直到开发人造神经网络(ANN)框架之前,此类技术的准确性才足够。此外,对财务时间序列进行准确的实时预测是对使用的ANN体系结构和培训程序的高度主观主观的。长期记忆(LSTM)是复发性神经网络家族的成员,已广泛用于时间序列预测。尤其是,我们以已知长度(例如$ t $时间步骤)的两个LSTM培训了以前的数据,并且仅预测一步。在每次迭代中,虽然使用一个LSTM来找到最佳时期数量,但第二个LSTM仅接受了最佳时期的培训,以进行预测。我们将当前的预测视为下一个预测的培训集,并培训同一LSTM。尽管经典的训练方式在测试期间进行了更远的预测时会导致更多错误,但我们的方法能够保持较高的准确性,因为训练在测试期间进行时会增加。我们的方法的预测准确性使用来自三个不同金融市场的每个时间序列进行验证:股票,加密货币和商品。将结果与扩展的Kalman滤波器,自回归模型和自回归集成移动平均模型进行了比较。
Financial markets are highly complex and volatile; thus, learning about such markets for the sake of making predictions is vital to make early alerts about crashes and subsequent recoveries. People have been using learning tools from diverse fields such as financial mathematics and machine learning in the attempt of making trustworthy predictions on such markets. However, the accuracy of such techniques had not been adequate until artificial neural network (ANN) frameworks were developed. Moreover, making accurate real-time predictions of financial time series is highly subjective to the ANN architecture in use and the procedure of training it. Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a member of the recurrent neural network family which has been widely utilized for time series predictions. Especially, we train two LSTMs with a known length, say $T$ time steps, of previous data and predict only one time step ahead. At each iteration, while one LSTM is employed to find the best number of epochs, the second LSTM is trained only for the best number of epochs to make predictions. We treat the current prediction as in the training set for the next prediction and train the same LSTM. While classic ways of training result in more error when the predictions are made further away in the test period, our approach is capable of maintaining a superior accuracy as training increases when it proceeds through the testing period. The forecasting accuracy of our approach is validated using three time series from each of the three diverse financial markets: stock, cryptocurrency, and commodity. The results are compared with those of an extended Kalman filter, an autoregressive model, and an autoregressive integrated moving average model.