论文标题

基于内在熵模型的股票市场指数的波动率估计器

A Volatility Estimator of Stock Market Indices Based on the Intrinsic Entropy Model

论文作者

Vinte, Claudiu, Ausloos, Marcel, Furtuna, Titus Felix

论文摘要

掌握股票市场指数的历史波动和准确估计是参与金融证券行业和衍生工具定价的主要重点。本文提出了采用内在熵模型作为估计股票市场指数波动率的替代品的结果。仅考虑与交易价格相关的要素,即交易日的开放价格,高,低和近距离价格(OHLC)的广泛波动率模型(OHLC),内在的熵模型也考虑了交易的交易,也考虑了所考虑的时间范围的交易量。我们调整了以前为交易所交易证券介绍的内部内在熵模型,以便将每日OHLC价格与相应每日量的比率与所考虑期间交易的总体交易的比率联系起来。内在的熵模型将该比率概念化为分配给相应价格水平的熵概率或市场信誉。使用用于交易市场指数的历史每日数据(标准普尔500,道琼斯指数,纽约证券交易所复合材料,纳斯达克复合材料,Nikkei 225和Hang Seng Index)计算内在熵。我们将固有熵模型产生的结果与使用广泛使用的行业波动率估计器为相同数据集获得的波动率估计值进行了比较。固有的熵模型被证明可以始终如一地提供各种时间范围的可靠估计值,同时显示出差异系数的特殊值,与其他高级波动率估计器相比,估计值的间隔范围明显较低。

Grasping the historical volatility of stock market indices and accurately estimating are two of the major focuses of those involved in the financial securities industry and derivative instruments pricing. This paper presents the results of employing the intrinsic entropy model as a substitute for estimating the volatility of stock market indices. Diverging from the widely used volatility models that take into account only the elements related to the traded prices, namely the open, high, low, and close prices of a trading day (OHLC), the intrinsic entropy model takes into account the traded volumes during the considered time frame as well. We adjust the intraday intrinsic entropy model that we introduced earlier for exchange-traded securities in order to connect daily OHLC prices with the ratio of the corresponding daily volume to the overall volume traded in the considered period. The intrinsic entropy model conceptualizes this ratio as entropic probability or market credence assigned to the corresponding price level. The intrinsic entropy is computed using historical daily data for traded market indices (S&P 500, Dow 30, NYSE Composite, NASDAQ Composite, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng Index). We compare the results produced by the intrinsic entropy model with the volatility estimates obtained for the same data sets using widely employed industry volatility estimators. The intrinsic entropy model proves to consistently deliver reliable estimates for various time frames while showing peculiarly high values for the coefficient of variation, with the estimates falling in a significantly lower interval range compared with those provided by the other advanced volatility estimators.

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