论文标题
使用精密矩阵的望远镜块分解在高斯图形模型中的证据估计
Evidence Estimation in Gaussian Graphical Models Using a Telescoping Block Decomposition of the Precision Matrix
论文作者
论文摘要
边际可能性,也称为模型证据,是贝叶斯统计中的基本数量。它用于使用贝叶斯因子或先前超参数的经验贝叶斯调整用于模型选择。然而,在高斯图形模型中,证据的计算仍然是一个长期的开放问题。目前,存在的唯一可行解决方案是适度的特殊情况,例如Wishart或G-Wishart。我们基于精密矩阵的新型望远镜块分解开发一种方法,该方法可以通过在轻度要求下在非常广泛的先验中应用Chib技术来估算证据。具体而言,要求是:(a)对角度矩阵上的对角线术语的先验可以写为伽马随机变量的伽马或比例混合物,以及(b)在非对角线项上的伽马矩阵的混合物可以作为正常或正常级别混合物表示。这包括结构化的先验,例如Wishart或G-Wishart,以及最近引入元素的先验,例如贝叶斯图形套索和图形马蹄。其中,真正的边缘是以分析性的封闭形式为Wishart所知,从而为我们的方法提供了有用的验证。对于其他三个的一般环境,以及上面的几个较满足的条件(a)和(b),证据的计算仍然是一个悬而未决的问题,即本文在统一的框架下解决。
Marginal likelihood, also known as model evidence, is a fundamental quantity in Bayesian statistics. It is used for model selection using Bayes factors or for empirical Bayes tuning of prior hyper-parameters. Yet, the calculation of evidence has remained a longstanding open problem in Gaussian graphical models. Currently, the only feasible solutions that exist are for special cases such as the Wishart or G-Wishart, in moderate dimensions. We develop an approach based on a novel telescoping block decomposition of the precision matrix that allows the estimation of evidence by application of Chib's technique under a very broad class of priors under mild requirements. Specifically, the requirements are: (a) the priors on the diagonal terms on the precision matrix can be written as gamma or scale mixtures of gamma random variables and (b) those on the off-diagonal terms can be represented as normal or scale mixtures of normal. This includes structured priors such as the Wishart or G-Wishart, and more recently introduced element-wise priors, such as the Bayesian graphical lasso and the graphical horseshoe. Among these, the true marginal is known in an analytically closed form for Wishart, providing a useful validation of our approach. For the general setting of the other three, and several more priors satisfying conditions (a) and (b) above, the calculation of evidence has remained an open question that this article resolves under a unifying framework.